Off to Lunch is back...
The business news that matters
Hello and welcome back to Off to Lunch. After a two-week break Off to Lunch will be with you every day this week, rounding-up the business news, ideas and analysis that matter.
I hope everyone has enjoyed their summer. With temperatures hitting more than 25-degrees across the UK this week, it is not over yet…
Our Business Studies podcast is now taking its own short summer break before returning in a couple of weeks. However, in the meantime you can expect some writing from me about our recent podcast episodes given how fascinating the interviews were.
The last edition of Off to Lunch before our two-week break was headlined “The state of play” and looked at the health of the UK economy. I wanted to pick-up that topic again today because a few bits of analysis have caught my eye over the last two weeks.
Firstly, the Office for National Statistics revised its data on the UK economy. This had significant consequences for the narrative around the performance of the UK, as the tweets below summarise…
The revisions added nearly 2 per cent to the size of the UK economy. This means the economy actually regained the losses it suffered during the Covid-19 crisis by the end of 2021, rather than still being smaller today than it was pre-Covid, as had previously been assumed. It also means the UK is not the worst-performing economy in the G7.
You can find the ONS’s data here.
The revisions are a reminder that data on the economy is subject to change as more information becomes available over time and that it is inadvisable to build profound and firm analysis around preliminary or first estimates - as the ONS, to its credit, constantly reminds us.
David Wighton wrote a superb column on this topic while I was at The Times in early 2022. He wrote:
It is yet another example of the fog that surrounds consumers, businesses and policymakers as they navigate the course ahead. Britain’s stats boffins, widely recognised as world class, are working to improve the figures, but in the meantime we would be wise to treat all data as provisional, watch out for revisions and, when the “facts” change, be ready, like Keynes, to change our minds.
You can find that column here
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, did a series of TV interviews on Sunday about the economy. He said the UK may suffer a “blip” on inflation, with a potential increase in the rate of inflation this month due to rising fuel prices and public sector pay deals. However, the chancellor said that forecasts from the Bank of England show that inflation should still fall to around 5 per cent by the end of the year, half of what it was. More here
Nonetheless, there are still challenges ahead. Economists are downgrading growth forecasts for 2024 around the world due to central banks holding off on cuts to interest rates. You can find more on that in a piece by the Financial Times here.
Meanwhile, David Smith, economics editor of The Sunday Times, has identified eight topics that politicians should talk about during party conference season but probably won’t. These include productivity remaining stagnant, a complex and inefficient tax system, and a rise in strikes. You can find that piece from over the weekend here. Lastly, Chris Giles, economics editor of the Financial Times, wrote last week about five key economic shifts around the world, including the rising US budget deficit and how India is catching up with China. More here
Podcast…
The latest episode of our Business Studies podcast features a look at the collapse of Wilko and why businesses fail. The retail veteran Ian Shepherd discusses what it was like being chief executive of video game retailer Game when it collapsed into administration and what retailers need to do today to not just survive but thrive. You can listen to the episode on Substack here, Apple here and Spotify here. For further reading, Ian Shepherd now writes the superb Moving Tribes newsletter on business strategy, which you can find here
As mentioned above, Business Studies is now taking a short summer break but I will be filling that gap with some thoughts on our recent episodes. Stay tuned…
Other stories that matter…
1. The weight-loss drug Wegovy has launched in the UK today but supplies of the injection are limited, with demand expected to be high. BBC story here
2. The opening of HS2 could lead to other rail services in the north of England being reduced due to the limited capacity in the network at Crewe, according to a new report. Blackpool, Oxenholme Lake District, Lockerbie and Haymarket in Edinburgh are among the stations likely to be affected. Story here
3. Buildings with high green standards are selling for up to 26 per cent more than other buildings in London. That is according to research flagged by City analyst Joachim Klement here
4. Sifted has put together 23 tips from the founders of fast-growing businesses and venture capital investors about how leaders can protect their well-being amid the strain of building and expanding a start-up. The tips include no phones in your bedroom, taking a lunch break and getting exercise. You can find the list here
5. There were a few pieces that caught my eye while I was on holiday that I will flag in Off to Lunch this week. Firstly, The Times had an interview on Saturday with Professor Ellen Langer, who has taught a course on decision-making at Harvard for more than 40 years. “There’s a belief now that the more information you gather the better the resulting decision will be, but when do you stop?” she says. “There’s no natural end point — you say I’ll read just one more article, ask one more friend. That’s what drives you crazy with stress. But there’s no data that I know that shows more information is better.” You can find the interview here
And finally…
I split my two weeks away between a staycation in the UK and a family holiday in Tenerife. We stayed in the south-west of Tenerife and it was fantastic. For anyone visiting the area I recommend the village of San Juan, which is yet to be overrun by tourists and has retained its Spanish charm. We ate at the Sesto Senso restaurant on the seafront, which had welcoming staff and superb food at a reasonable price. You can find the restaurant here
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Best
Graham